Can Autonomous Semi-Trucks Become the Future of American Trucking?

Imagine that you are driving on a familiar section of your state’s highway system. How many semi-trailer trucks do you pass? One every few minutes, or maybe even close to a dozen? They are ubiquitous across all highways, moving goods you rely on every single day.

The trucking industry is one of its most important in the country, facilitating almost three-fourths of the nation’s freight by weight. The movement of this freight represents massive economic benefit; according to the U.S. Department of Transportation, the value of shipments moved by truck was nearly $14 trillion in 2023, significantly higher than those moved by rail ($577 billion) and water ($256 billion). 

Despite water, rail, and air shipping being productive alternatives, trucking is the most prevalent form of inland commerce by a wide margin. That is largely due to the the navigability of roadways unlike fixed track or waterways, and last-mile deliveries virtually always require a truck. Waterways facilitate trade to the tune of half a trillion dollars, and barges can carry far more freight. However, not all states are equally water-abundant and a lot must go smoothly, in terms of working infrastructure, for waterborne commerce to flourish (See our recent blog). Rail, too, has its merits, being more fuel-efficient and environmentally friendly. But our nation’s rail networks are not adequate to handle the volume of commerce. Domestic air shipping is simply too costly. 

By comparison, trucking is easier in almost every way. Firstly, it requires less infrastructure, primarily operational highways and ample fueling stations. Secondly, the logistics are simpler and more flexible since shipments can be sent directly to warehouses, stores, or households without intermodal transport. Thirdly, shipping by truck has the shortest “average haul operations” — or in other words, it is quicker, especially over short to medium distances. And crucially, truck drivers have long been one of the most abundant sources of labor in our country, recorded at almost 10 percent of the labor force in 2021. 

Unfortunately, truck driving does not appeal to the new generation of workers, and the current workforce is growing old. In 2019, the American Trucking Association found the average age of a U.S. truck driver to be 46 (with others estimating it higher in recent years), much higher than the national workforce average, and alarmingly, the average age of a new trainee is 35. Over the last half-decade, researchers have devoted considerable effort to understanding this shortage of truck drivers. But it does not take a PhD to observe that, since 2022, the growth rate for jobs in transportation and warehousing (of which trucking is the largest component) has flattened. Whatever the reasons, policymakers should heed this dilemma, for shipping by truck is not going anywhere. The gap between shipping by truck, versus rail and water, is expected to widen massively by 2050. However, as the supply of drivers decreases and the demand for goods increases, the shortage will worsen and the prices will rise, something that is not popular among any constituents.

So, what can be done? In the short term, there are options policymakers can take to incentivize young people to drive trucks and middle-aged people not to quit. For example, regulations have encouraged shorter hours and more regular breaks, bolstered by improved freight relay options. While in the long-run, technological innovation — though never a catch-all — has great potential to reshape the trucking industry. Autonomous (self-driving) semi-trucks may offer an appealing opportunity to refine.

There are numerous arguments in favor of embracing autonomous semi-trucks. The simplest hinges on the difference between humans and artificial intelligence (AI). Currently, even with existing hours of service laws, almost half of drivers work more than 40 hours per week and often they do not receive adequate rest, food, or exercise. Fortunately, AI systems do not experience hunger, boredom, or fatigue, their concentration remains unwavering, and they never need to use the bathroom. They are not prone to loneliness, stress, or homesickness. The idea of an AI-powered truck driving autonomously alongside you may be unnerving, but it is already being done, and very successfully, albeit on a small scale.

Neither the literature nor the data is sufficient yet to confidently assert whether AI robots are safer drivers. But such a future is attainable. Powered by advanced machine learning and equipped with 360-degree sensor input and rapid reaction time, the latest autonomous trucks are, at least theoretically, less likely to miss critical cues that lead to accidents. At the nascent company Aurora, for instance, training involves preparing trucks for unexpected scenarios including pedestrians crossing in front, being cut off by another vehicle, blowing a tire, or encountering emergency and law enforcement vehicles. 

The logistics industry provides additional reasons. The truck driver shortage has captured the attention of logistics experts and some are sounding the alarm for a “logistics crisis,” characterized by soaring transportation costs exacerbated by the shortage of drivers. In short, it is a mess, but one that automation could help clean up. One study found that “with full autonomy, operating costs would decline by about 45 percent, saving the U.S. for-hire trucking industry between $85 billion and $125 billion.” Over the past decade, automation has transformed warehousing, manufacturing, procurement, forecasting, and even customer service within the supply chain. Why should the next step not be to extend that automation downstream to trucking?

Not all autonomous semi-trucks on the market are battery-powered (Aurora’s are diesel-powered) but even so, there might be an efficiency boost to ground freight transport. A 2024 study found that by optimizing highway speeds, limiting idling, facilitating eco-driving, and reducing traffic congestion, among other improvements, automation can significantly reduce fuel consumption, and consequently transportation costs.

The potential of these trucks is appealing but for them to reach it, policymakers will have to address obstacles on multiple fronts, including regulation, infrastructure, and public opinion. 

Understandably, there is fear and skepticism among Americans regarding the prospect of autonomous vehicles (AVs). Recent survey results offer a glimpse: only 13 percent of respondents are comfortable riding inside an autonomous vehicle. One can extrapolate that these same respondents would feel similarly uneasy driving alongside one. The question of how we assuage these fears should be at the forefront of our minds.

The current regulatory paradigm for autonomous vehicles can be burdensome and spans federal, state, and local levels. By one paper’s count, the amount of regulatory bodies and regulations that must be cleared in order to clear a commercial trucking operation is nine on the federal level, nine at the state level, and seven locally. Most of these laws fall under vehicle compliance and labor law. Automation arguably renders the latter moot but raises a host of new concerns that need to be addressed. So far, a total of 34 states have enacted some form of AV-related legislation. Additionally, some states have issued executive orders or regulations pertaining to AV testing and deployment. Despite these developments, the regulatory landscape for AVs remains fragmented and incomplete; Standardized safety assessments, data transparency requirements, and clear liability frameworks are three steps policymakers can take immediately.

Lastly, infrastructure remains at the forefront of importance. In addition to the digital infrastructure (cybersecurity, communication, and GPS) necessary for AI systems to function properly, safely, and resiliently, roadways must be prepared. Consistent and clear lane markings, signage, and traffic signals are crucial for AV sensors to interpret the driving environment reliably (in addition to helping human drivers) and poor road conditions only make the job of AVs more difficult.

Autonomous semi-trucks are an innovation with tremendous promise and the potential to keep afloat, and, further down the line, revolutionize the nation’s ever-important trucking industry. However, further research, such as that being done by the U.S. DOT Volpe Center, is essential for informing how we can effectively scale their integration over the next several decades. Achieving the vision of freight and supply chain innovators will require sustained collaboration between the public and private sectors, as well as gradual acceptance by the public. Let us take on the challenge.

Written by Jackson Murray, Public Policy Intern