Space: The final frontier. An infinity of cold, dead vacuum virtually untouched by man. Then, like every frontier we encountered before it, humanity swiftly began to conquer it. Our first expedition took the form of a two-foot-wide metal orb called Sputnik 1, which entered orbit in 1957. Every year since, we have become more familiar and involved with our nearby space, adding thousands of satellites that have become a critical aspect of modern digital infrastructure. From financial transitions to satellite television, the modern world relies on our access to space. As this space has become increasingly crowded with functional and non-functional satellites, academics from astrophysicists to economists express concerns over potential overuse.
Intellectuals have feared the ramifications of overcrowded space for decades. Astrophysicist Donald Kessler highlighted these concerns in his 1978 paper “Collision Frequency of Artificial Satellites: The Creation of a Debris Belt.” In it, Kessler lays out the potential for accidental satellite collisions in an increasingly crowded orbital space. According to Kessler, these accidental collisions could release debris that goes on to destroy other satellites. A cascade could accelerate exponentially, blanketing the Earth in an impenetrable shroud of detritus, in what is now called the Kessler Syndrome.
Kessler was most concerned with low-earth orbit (LEO) space objects. LEO is the busiest space around Earth and, in many ways, the most critical. Because the orbit is both cheaper to reach and has less latency than alternatives, LEO infrastructure includes a majority of telecommunications, internet, and imaging satellites. Kessler predicted that the first accidental collision would occur in LEO as early as 1989.
While his predictions were overly cautious, Kessler’s work was not disregarded. Global efforts responded to the threat and the level of space debris – defunct satellites, detached rocket boosters, etc. – declined slowly for two decades starting in the mid-1980s. This decline resulted from mitigation techniques, such as improved satellite repositioning and coordination. It seemed that we managed to strike a healthy balance with our presence in space. Then, two events in the late 2000s dramatically brought the Kessler Syndrome back to center stage.
On January 11, 2007, China exhibited its anti-satellite missile capabilities. As the defunct weather satellite Fengyun 1C passed over Central China, a modified anti-ballistic missile interceptor screamed out of its mobile launcher and collided with Fengyun. It is estimated that this event created as much orbital debris as the previous 22 years of accumulation. Just two years later, the decommissioned Russian military communications satellite Cosmos 2251 accidentally impacted the active Iridium 33 private communications vehicle. This incident was estimated to have created 36 years worth of debris in an instant.
When Kessler published his 1978 piece, NASA was tracking 3,866 objects in orbit wider than 10 centimeters. By 1987, the number climbed to roughly 7,000. The ever-increasing number of satellite installations, combined with the two disasters of the 2000s, has increased this number to over 25,000 objects today. The Kessler Syndrome has not gripped us yet, but the risk may be a reality within a lifetime.
Fortunately, both public and private entities have responded to this development. Automatic deorbiting protocols, like those used by Starlink, ensure that new satellites remove themselves from orbit at the end of their lifetime. The expanding use of high-throughput satellites (HTS), which provide much higher data transmission capacity than previous satellites, is allowing for many communication and internet satellites to be moved out of LEO and into less crowded orbits. NASA’s proposed Space Traffic Management Architecture (STM) would drastically increase the coordination between all willing participants, not just American spacecraft. Touted as a “highly scalable, decentralized” solution, STM or a similar program promises to increase the safety of all participating LEO assets. Innovations like these are critical in future-proofing our orbital infrastructure, but they do not address the root cause of our overcrowded space.
Acting Chief Economist for NASA, Dr. Akhil Rao and his colleagues tackle the underlying issues of LEO congestion in their 2020 paper “Orbital use-fees could more than quadruple the value of the space industry.” Satellite operators face relatively low costs to install new spacecraft but have no property rights over their orbital routes. Thus, LEO is currently operating in a textbook “Tragedy of the Commons” scenario. Without incentives to manage their orbital space or protection from the mismanagement of others, satellite operators have little motivation to optimally manage LEO, threatening its long-term viability. Fortunately, Rao et al. propose practicable solutions.
A Pigouvian tax is a tax imposed on actions that have an adverse impact on society, thereby reducing harmful behavior and generating revenue. Rao proposes such a tax on satellite operations. Paying this tax, called an orbital use-fee (OUF), would guarantee an operator’s property rights to a certain orbit. By having to pay for orbital space, operators will reduce the total amount of orbital space they use while ensuring that the space they have purchased is used efficiently. Operators would work to remove debris from their property and prevent the creation of new debris.
The OUF system clearly requires extensive international coordination. Rao accounts for this with solutions such as the OUF revenue being paid to individual governments rather than an international body, making adoption more appealing. Internationally, harmonious efforts are few and far between, but this truly global problem will require a global solution. Preventing a Kessler Syndrome catastrophe means fundamentally reevaluating how we approach orbital space. Pragmatic and realistic solutions exist today and should be carefully considered. Continued mismanagement of this final commons poses a critical threat to global digital infrastructure and must not go unaddressed.
Written by Colson Grimes, Public Policy Intern
The Alliance for Innovation and Infrastructure (Aii) is an independent, national research and educational organization working to advance innovation across industry and public policy. The only nationwide public policy think tank dedicated to infrastructure, Aii explores the intersection of economics, law, and public policy in the areas of climate, damage prevention, eminent domain, energy, infrastructure, innovation, technology, and transportation.